South Kesteven

East Midlands · England
-9.3pp WBI 90.5% → 81.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
143,405 Population (2021 Census)
90.5% White British (2021)
84.9% White British (2041 projected)
81.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.5%
white other 5.3%
asian 1.8%
black 0.6%
mixed 1.4%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 81.2%
white other 12.2%
asian 2.1%
black 0.7%
mixed 3.2%
other 0.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+4.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.24 · Dissimilarity: 16.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 91.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 8.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 31.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.7%
notEnglishPct 8.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

27/100 Low Pressure Rank 230 of 320
Ethnic change8/20
Asylum7/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing11/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate59%
Avg home ownership67.5%
Avg social rent12.2%
Degree or above29.5%
No qualifications16.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)67.5%
Social rent (2021)12.2%
Private rent (2021)18%
Ownership (2041)65.8%
Social rent (2041)12.2%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.7%
notEnglishPct 8.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+5.6pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census