North Kesteven

East Midlands · England
-3.3pp WBI 94.3% → 90.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
118,072 Population (2021 Census)
94.3% White British (2021)
92.2% White British (2041 projected)
90.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.3%
white other 2.9%
asian 1.0%
black 0.3%
mixed 1.2%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 90.9%
white other 4.7%
asian 1.0%
black 0.4%
mixed 2.5%
other 0.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+6.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.16 · Dissimilarity: 19.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 23.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.0%
notEnglishPct 4.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

12/100 Stable Rank 317 of 320
Ethnic change3/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing9/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate59.4%
Avg home ownership72.8%
Avg social rent9.9%
Degree or above29.5%
No qualifications15.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)72.8%
Social rent (2021)9.9%
Private rent (2021)16%
Ownership (2041)72.4%
Social rent (2041)9.9%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.0%
notEnglishPct 4.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+2.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census