South Hams

South West · England
-26.5pp WBI 94.2% → 67.7% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
88,628 Population (2021 Census)
94.2% White British (2021)
92.9% White British (2041 projected)
92.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.2%
white other 3.3%
asian 0.7%
black 0.2%
mixed 1.2%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 92.4%
white other 4.7%
asian 0.6%
black 0.1%
mixed 1.8%
other 0.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+6.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.16 · Dissimilarity: 19.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.7%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.3%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 34.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.6%
notEnglishPct 2.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

17/100 Stable Rank 304 of 320
Ethnic change2/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing14/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.5%
Avg home ownership71.3%
Avg social rent11.7%
Degree or above39.5%
No qualifications12.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)71.3%
Social rent (2021)11.7%
Private rent (2021)16%
Ownership (2041)71.2%
Social rent (2041)11.8%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.6%
notEnglishPct 2.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+1.3pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census