Plymouth

South West · England
-14.6pp WBI 89.5% → 74.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
264,695 Population (2021 Census)
89.5% White British (2021)
80.8% White British (2041 projected)
74.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 89.5%
white other 4.5%
asian 2.2%
black 1.1%
mixed 1.8%
other 1.0%

Projected 2051

white british 74.9%
white other 10.6%
asian 4.2%
black 3.2%
mixed 4.8%
other 2.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.0pp Structural effect
+3.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.27 · Dissimilarity: 15.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 90.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 9.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 31.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.5%
notEnglishPct 9.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

41/100 Low Pressure Rank 137 of 320
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum9/20
School7/20
Language0/20
Housing11/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.7%
Avg home ownership56.6%
Avg social rent17.8%
Degree or above26.6%
No qualifications16.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)56.6%
Social rent (2021)17.8%
Private rent (2021)22.3%
Ownership (2041)53.8%
Social rent (2041)17.2%
Social rent change-0.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 38,232 pupils.

WBI pupils82.2%
Minority pupils17.8%
EAL growth (projected)+7.3pp
WBI gap (school vs population)7.3pp

Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.5%
notEnglishPct 9.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+8.7pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census