Torbay

South West · England
-9.1pp WBI 92.1% → 83.0% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
139,324 Population (2021 Census)
92.1% White British (2021)
86.6% White British (2041 projected)
83.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 92.1%
white other 4.0%
asian 1.6%
black 0.3%
mixed 1.5%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 83.0%
white other 11.1%
asian 2.0%
black 0.3%
mixed 3.1%
other 0.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+4.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.21 · Dissimilarity: 17.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 92.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 7.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 38.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.1%
notEnglishPct 5.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

32/100 Low Pressure Rank 200 of 320
Ethnic change8/20
Asylum2/20
School6/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate52.3%
Avg home ownership63.6%
Avg social rent8.1%
Degree or above24.9%
No qualifications19.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)63.6%
Social rent (2021)8.1%
Private rent (2021)26.3%
Ownership (2041)62.4%
Social rent (2041)8.1%
Social rent change-0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 19,494 pupils.

WBI pupils86.3%
Minority pupils13.7%
EAL growth (projected)+5.8pp
WBI gap (school vs population)5.8pp

Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.1%
notEnglishPct 5.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+5.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census