Lincoln

East Midlands · England
-22.8pp WBI 82.7% → 59.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
103,814 Population (2021 Census)
82.7% White British (2021)
68.2% White British (2041 projected)
59.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 82.7%
white other 9.4%
asian 3.2%
black 1.4%
mixed 2.0%
other 1.2%

Projected 2051

white british 59.9%
white other 31.4%
asian 3.6%
black 1.5%
mixed 2.4%
other 1.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.8pp Structural effect
+0.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.38 · Dissimilarity: 10.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 84.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 15.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 45.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.2%
notEnglishPct 19.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

35/100 Low Pressure Rank 175 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.6%
Avg home ownership48.5%
Avg social rent20%
Degree or above25.2%
No qualifications16.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)48.5%
Social rent (2021)20%
Private rent (2021)26.8%
Ownership (2041)44.9%
Social rent (2041)19.4%
Social rent change-0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.2%
notEnglishPct 19.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+14.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census