Merton

London · England
-27.6pp WBI 41.2% → 13.6% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
215,187 Population (2021 Census)
41.2% White British (2021)
23.3% White British (2041 projected)
13.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 41.2%
white other 19.0%
asian 18.6%
black 10.6%
mixed 5.9%
other 4.6%

Projected 2051

white british 13.6%
white other 14.2%
asian 11.4%
black 5.8%
mixed 7.4%
other 47.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+2.5pp Structural effect
-3.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.86 · Dissimilarity: 33.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 15.3% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 59.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 40.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 76.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 78.5%
notEnglishPct 42.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

57/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 62 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum7/20
School13/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate49.6%
Avg home ownership38.4%
Avg social rent9.5%
Degree or above35.4%
No qualifications10%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)38.4%
Social rent (2021)9.5%
Private rent (2021)22.9%
Ownership (2041)37.7%
Social rent (2041)10.1%
Social rent change+0.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 27,217 pupils.

WBI pupils28.5%
Minority pupils71.5%
EAL growth (projected)+12.7pp
WBI gap (school vs population)12.7pp

Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 78.5%
notEnglishPct 42.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+17.9pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census