Croydon

London · England
-26.5pp WBI 37.4% → 11.0% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
390,724 Population (2021 Census)
37.4% White British (2021)
18.7% White British (2041 projected)
11.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 37.4%
white other 10.9%
asian 17.5%
black 22.6%
mixed 7.6%
other 3.9%

Projected 2051

white british 11.0%
white other 15.4%
asian 14.0%
black 19.6%
mixed 8.4%
other 31.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-9.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+2.6pp Structural effect
-6.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.88 · Dissimilarity: 37.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 18.5% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 65.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 34.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 71.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 84.0%
notEnglishPct 32.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

71/100 High Pressure Rank 13 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum18/20
School15/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate40.1%
Avg home ownership32%
Avg social rent10.5%
Degree or above24.5%
No qualifications9.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)32%
Social rent (2021)10.5%
Private rent (2021)17.3%
Ownership (2041)29%
Social rent (2041)10.2%
Social rent change-0.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 56,112 pupils.

WBI pupils22.8%
Minority pupils77.2%
EAL growth (projected)+14.6pp
WBI gap (school vs population)14.6pp

Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 84.0%
notEnglishPct 32.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+18.7pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census