Doncaster

Yorkshire and The Humber · England
-32.1pp WBI 86.6% → 54.5% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
308,104 Population (2021 Census)
86.6% White British (2021)
68.4% White British (2041 projected)
54.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 86.6%
white other 6.5%
asian 3.0%
black 1.2%
mixed 1.5%
other 1.2%

Projected 2051

white british 54.5%
white other 27.4%
asian 3.6%
black 3.5%
mixed 2.8%
other 8.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-5.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.9pp Structural effect
+2.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.32 · Dissimilarity: 12.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 89.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 10.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 35.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.8%
notEnglishPct 14.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

53/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 78 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum10/20
School10/20
Language0/20
Housing12/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.9%
Avg home ownership60.2%
Avg social rent16.3%
Degree or above21.8%
No qualifications23.6%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)60.2%
Social rent (2021)16.3%
Private rent (2021)19.3%
Ownership (2041)53.5%
Social rent (2041)15.6%
Social rent change-0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 47,978 pupils.

WBI pupils76.4%
Minority pupils23.6%
EAL growth (projected)+10.2pp
WBI gap (school vs population)10.2pp

Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.8%
notEnglishPct 14.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+18.3pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census