Derbyshire Dales

East Midlands · England
-26.6pp WBI 95.5% → 68.9% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
71,535 Population (2021 Census)
95.5% White British (2021)
79.0% White British (2041 projected)
68.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 95.5%
white other 2.3%
asian 0.7%
black 0.6%
mixed 0.7%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 68.9%
white other 8.7%
asian 10.6%
black 5.3%
mixed 3.3%
other 3.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+6.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.14 · Dissimilarity: 21.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 96.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 3.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 23.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 99.1%
notEnglishPct 1.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

30/100 Low Pressure Rank 216 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing10/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.6%
Avg home ownership72%
Avg social rent12.5%
Degree or above38.7%
No qualifications15.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)72%
Social rent (2021)12.5%
Private rent (2021)14.3%
Ownership (2041)64.6%
Social rent (2041)11.7%
Social rent change-0.8pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 99.1%
notEnglishPct 1.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+16.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census