Southwark

London · England
-16.9pp WBI 35.5% → 18.6% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
307,640 Population (2021 Census)
35.5% White British (2021)
24.9% White British (2041 projected)
18.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 35.5%
white other 15.9%
asian 9.9%
black 25.1%
mixed 7.2%
other 6.3%

Projected 2051

white british 18.6%
white other 11.0%
asian 8.9%
black 14.6%
mixed 10.3%
other 36.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+3.2pp Structural effect
-1.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.89 · Dissimilarity: 39.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 10.4% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 59.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 40.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 76.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 82.0%
notEnglishPct 36.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

57/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 61 of 320
Ethnic change16/20
Asylum8/20
School15/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate46.6%
Avg home ownership19.5%
Avg social rent24.4%
Degree or above35.6%
No qualifications8.9%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)19.5%
Social rent (2021)24.4%
Private rent (2021)21.1%
Ownership (2041)18.7%
Social rent (2041)27.2%
Social rent change+2.8pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 39,811 pupils.

WBI pupils20.5%
Minority pupils79.5%
EAL growth (projected)+15.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)15.0pp

Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 82.0%
notEnglishPct 36.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.7pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census