Pendle

North West · England
-36.8pp WBI 66.1% → 29.3% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
95,758 Population (2021 Census)
66.1% White British (2021)
41.0% White British (2041 projected)
29.3% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 66.1%
white other 4.4%
asian 26.7%
black 0.3%
mixed 1.6%
other 0.9%

Projected 2051

white british 29.3%
white other 11.0%
asian 55.3%
black 0.3%
mixed 3.2%
other 1.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-11.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.2pp Structural effect
-4.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.49 · Dissimilarity: 17.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 51.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 82.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 17.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 63.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.6%
notEnglishPct 24.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

60/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 42 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate41.1%
Avg home ownership46.8%
Avg social rent8.7%
Degree or above18.5%
No qualifications18.2%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)46.8%
Social rent (2021)8.7%
Private rent (2021)17.5%
Ownership (2041)31.8%
Social rent (2041)6.8%
Social rent change-1.9pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.6%
notEnglishPct 24.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+25.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census