Adult social care spend does not track demographic change: the councils compared are mostly one county

Correction, 12 October 2026. The figures in this piece came from a 25-authority file typed into the site’s source by hand in April 2026, with no raw file or script behind it, and they could not be traced to any published table. The file gave spend per head of total population, and it gave figures for district councils, which run no adult social care. The piece said the five councils with the fastest demographic change averaged £612 per head, the five with the slowest £472, and that spend ran from £442 (Ribble Valley) to £724 (Blackpool) across 25 authorities. On the published figures, gross current expenditure on adult social care per resident aged 18 and over in 2024-25 is £692 in Blackburn with Darwen, £687 in Lancashire, £522 in West Northamptonshire and £884 in Blackpool, against £627 for England (Department of Health and Social Care, Adult social care finance report, England: 2024 to 2025, Table 14, divided by ONS mid-2025 population estimates). Pendle, Preston and Burnley in the first group, and all five councils in the second, are Lancashire districts whose adult social care is run by Lancashire County Council. The comparison the original headline rested on therefore does not hold: on real figures the two groups are mostly the same council.

The headline originally read: “Councils with fastest demographic change spend most on adult social care”. It now says what the published figures show.

What the published figures show. Adult social care is run by upper-tier councils: counties, unitary authorities, metropolitan districts and London boroughs. A district council has no adult social care budget, so a district has no spend figure of its own.

Of the five councils this piece named as changing fastest, Blackburn with Darwen spent £692 per adult in 2024-25 and West Northamptonshire £522. Pendle, Preston and Burnley are Lancashire districts. Of the five named as changing slowest, Wyre, Ribble Valley, Fylde, West Lancashire and Rossendale are all Lancashire districts. Lancashire County Council spent £687 per adult. Blackpool spent £884, and England as a whole £627.

These figures count gross current expenditure on adult social care in the financial year, divided by residents aged 18 and over. They are spend per adult resident, not per person receiving care.

Methodological limitation: A comparison of a handful of councils is descriptive, not causal. Spend per adult follows deprivation, the share of residents aged 65 and over, unpaid care and local policy, so differences between councils are not a measure of need or efficiency on their own.

Whether immigration-driven demographic change increases or decreases future ASC demand depends on the age profile of incoming populations. Younger migrant populations may temporarily reduce the 65+ share, but eventually age into the care system themselves.