Burnley

North West · England
-34.8pp WBI 77.9% → 43.1% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
94,651 Population (2021 Census)
77.9% White British (2021)
55.5% White British (2041 projected)
43.1% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 77.9%
white other 4.6%
asian 14.7%
black 0.3%
mixed 1.6%
other 0.8%

Projected 2051

white british 43.1%
white other 22.9%
asian 29.4%
black 0.3%
mixed 3.4%
other 0.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
-0.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.42 · Dissimilarity: 8.9

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 21.0% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 53.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.0%
notEnglishPct 17.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

60/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 41 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate48.4%
Avg home ownership50.5%
Avg social rent13.3%
Degree or above20.7%
No qualifications20.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)50.5%
Social rent (2021)13.3%
Private rent (2021)21.2%
Ownership (2041)40.6%
Social rent (2041)12.5%
Social rent change-0.8pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.0%
notEnglishPct 17.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+22.4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census