Bradford

Yorkshire and The Humber · England
-26.3pp WBI 56.7% → 30.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
546,412 Population (2021 Census)
56.7% White British (2021)
39.9% White British (2041 projected)
30.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 56.7%
white other 4.4%
asian 32.1%
black 2.0%
mixed 2.8%
other 2.0%

Projected 2051

white british 30.4%
white other 5.7%
asian 42.6%
black 4.0%
mixed 4.3%
other 13.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+1.3pp Structural effect
-2.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.60 · Dissimilarity: 24.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 39.9% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 81.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 18.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 51.5%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.6%
notEnglishPct 24.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

67/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 22 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum12/20
School19/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate37.5%
Avg home ownership39.9%
Avg social rent9.9%
Degree or above18.1%
No qualifications15.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)39.9%
Social rent (2021)9.9%
Private rent (2021)16%
Ownership (2041)31.3%
Social rent (2041)8.8%
Social rent change-1.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 98,006 pupils.

WBI pupils38.0%
Minority pupils62.0%
EAL growth (projected)+18.7pp
WBI gap (school vs population)18.7pp

Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 87.6%
notEnglishPct 24.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+16.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census