Neath Port Talbot

Wales · Wales
-15.0pp WBI 95.0% → 80.0% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
142,290 Population (2021 Census)
95.0% White British (2021)
85.7% White British (2041 projected)
80.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 95.0%
white other 1.7%
asian 1.6%
black 0.9%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 80.0%
white other 5.2%
asian 6.9%
black 2.7%
mixed 3.2%
other 2.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.9pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+5.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.15 · Dissimilarity: 20.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 96.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 3.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 23.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.6%
notEnglishPct 2.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

26/100 Low Pressure Rank 239 of 320
Ethnic change14/20
Asylum2/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing10/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate51.9%
Avg home ownership65%
Avg social rent18.8%
Degree or above25.2%
No qualifications23.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)65%
Social rent (2021)18.8%
Private rent (2021)13.8%
Ownership (2041)61.4%
Social rent (2041)18.1%
Social rent change-0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.6%
notEnglishPct 2.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census