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Wales · Wales
-16.7pp WBI 94.9% → 78.2% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
133,169 Population (2021 Census)
94.9% White British (2021)
84.5% White British (2041 projected)
78.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.9%
white other 2.9%
asian 0.9%
black 0.5%
mixed 0.5%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 78.2%
white other 7.3%
asian 6.8%
black 2.7%
mixed 2.9%
other 2.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+6.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.15 · Dissimilarity: 20.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 95.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 4.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 19.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.1%
notEnglishPct 3.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

23/100 Stable Rank 264 of 320
Ethnic change16/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing7/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.1%
Avg home ownership66.8%
Avg social rent13.9%
Degree or above31.4%
No qualifications18.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.8%
Social rent (2021)13.9%
Private rent (2021)17.8%
Ownership (2041)62.4%
Social rent (2041)13.5%
Social rent change-0.5pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.1%
notEnglishPct 3.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.3pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census