Carmarthenshire

Wales · Wales
-15.8pp WBI 94.0% → 78.2% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
187,898 Population (2021 Census)
94.0% White British (2021)
84.1% White British (2041 projected)
78.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.0%
white other 3.2%
asian 1.2%
black 0.6%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.4%

Projected 2051

white british 78.2%
white other 7.4%
asian 6.5%
black 2.7%
mixed 2.9%
other 2.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+6.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.17 · Dissimilarity: 19.5

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 94.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 5.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 19.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.6%
notEnglishPct 4.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

24/100 Stable Rank 258 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum2/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing7/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.2%
Avg home ownership69.3%
Avg social rent14.1%
Degree or above30.7%
No qualifications19.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)69.3%
Social rent (2021)14.1%
Private rent (2021)14.8%
Ownership (2041)64.8%
Social rent (2041)13.5%
Social rent change-0.5pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.6%
notEnglishPct 4.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census