Rhondda Cynon Taf

Wales · Wales
-14.5pp WBI 95.2% → 80.6% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
237,653 Population (2021 Census)
95.2% White British (2021)
86.1% White British (2041 projected)
80.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 95.2%
white other 1.6%
asian 1.5%
black 0.9%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 80.6%
white other 5.1%
asian 6.5%
black 2.8%
mixed 3.0%
other 2.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+6.5pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.15 · Dissimilarity: 20.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 96.3%
Foreign-born (2021) 3.7%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 15.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.5%
notEnglishPct 3.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

23/100 Stable Rank 260 of 320
Ethnic change14/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing6/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.2%
Avg home ownership66.9%
Avg social rent13.4%
Degree or above26.1%
No qualifications23.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.9%
Social rent (2021)13.4%
Private rent (2021)17.4%
Ownership (2041)63.1%
Social rent (2041)12.8%
Social rent change-0.5pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.5%
notEnglishPct 3.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census