Swansea

Wales · Wales
-18.0pp WBI 87.5% → 69.5% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
238,491 Population (2021 Census)
87.5% White British (2021)
75.5% White British (2041 projected)
69.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 87.5%
white other 3.9%
asian 4.4%
black 1.7%
mixed 1.0%
other 1.4%

Projected 2051

white british 69.5%
white other 8.1%
asian 10.6%
black 3.9%
mixed 4.0%
other 4.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.9pp Structural effect
+3.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.31 · Dissimilarity: 13.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 90.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 9.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 32.5%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

43/100 Low Pressure Rank 123 of 320
Ethnic change18/20
Asylum14/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing12/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate51%
Avg home ownership58.5%
Avg social rent17.9%
Degree or above30.8%
No qualifications17.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)58.5%
Social rent (2021)17.9%
Private rent (2021)17.4%
Ownership (2041)53.1%
Social rent (2041)17.3%
Social rent change-0.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+12pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census