Folkestone and Hythe
South East · England · E07000112109,759 people at the 2021 Census. Twenty three datasets for this area, every figure sourced.
Ethnic composition trajectory
Solid to 2021 is Census. Dashed after that is the model, which was scored against Census 2021 before publication: a mean absolute error of 1.56 percentage points on that one-decade forecast and a bias of +0.05 points, close to unbiased. The shaded band is the 80% interval for White British share.
Ethnic composition, Folkestone and Hythe
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% interval
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | White British | White Other | Asian | Mixed | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 90.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 2021 | 88.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| 2031 modelled | 85.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| 2041 modelled | 82.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| 2051 modelled | 77.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% |
| 2061 modelled | 71.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 9.8% | 6.5% |
Ethnic composition: Folkestone and Hythe
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±3.9pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 77.3% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 73.4% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 3.9pp on White British share in Folkestone and Hythe by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Folkestone and Hythe ranges from 48.8% to 70.7% by 2051: a 21.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.5% by 2051
Diversity index
low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.30 · Dissimilarity: 13.8
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | Christian | No religion |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 50.9% | 44.3% |
| 2031 modelled | 33.9% | 60.7% |
| 2041 modelled | 20.2% | 74.1% |
| 2051 modelled | 11.0% | 83.1% |
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | UK-born | Foreign-born |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 2031 modelled | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 2041 modelled | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 2051 modelled | 64.9% | 35.1% |
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English95.2%
Main language not English4.8%
Cannot speak English well0.6%
Cannot speak English at all0.2%
Total population 3+106,774
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Data flag 4.8% of residents aged 3 and over have a main language other than English (Census 2021, TS029), below the 15% line this site uses to flag language demand. A threshold on one Census variable, not a service-planning assessment. This site publishes no projection of language: it models ethnic group, and ethnic composition change is not a measure of language change.
Demographic change and service exposure
A composite score from five capped components. It measures exposure to demographic change, not service cost or capacity, and it has not been validated against observed service demand. See how the score is built.
Ethnic change9/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language5/20
Housing12/20
New arrivals (NINo registrations)
Adults from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, rolling year ending Oct-25 to Dec-25. Folkestone and Hythe ranks at the 34th percentile nationally for total NINo registrations.
Registrations (rolling year)323
Year-on-year -14.1%
NationalityRegistrationsShare
Nepal 147 45.5%
India 24 7.4%
Ukraine 23 7.1%
Canada 22 6.8%
Pakistan 13 4.0%
Turkey 12 3.7%
Afghanistan 12 3.7%
Nigeria 11 3.4%
Russia 10 3.1%
Sudan 9 2.8%
DWP National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals (Stat-Xplore NINO database).. NINo registrations measure new arrivals into the National Insurance system, not total foreign-born population. A NINo is allocated when an overseas national requests one, usually to start work or claim benefits, so the figure misses students and dependants who never enter the labour market. Small (LA × nationality) cells are suppressed by Stat-Xplore for disclosure control.
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Folkestone and Hythe from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2010 (689 registrations). Total over the full period: 9,484 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 383 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Folkestone and Hythe in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Folkestone and Hythe UK marker
Sex
Male share is 14.2pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
Why people are coming
For each of the top arriving nationalities in Folkestone and Hythe, this is the national mix of visa routes used in 2025. It shows whether arrivals from that country are typically students, workers, on family routes (including refugee family reunion), or in some other category. Local-authority breakdowns of visa routes are not published, so we apply the national mix at nationality level.
Nepal 147 in Folkestone and Hythe (45.5%)
India 24 in Folkestone and Hythe (7.4%)
Ukraine 23 in Folkestone and Hythe (7.1%)
Canada 22 in Folkestone and Hythe (6.8%)
Pakistan 13 in Folkestone and Hythe (4.0%)
Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026; Vis_D02 (Entry clearance visa outcomes by nationality, visa type, and outcome). Joined with DWP Stat-Xplore NINo registrations rolling year ending Q4 2025. Visa grants are issued at the point of entry-clearance application and are NOT the same population as NINo registrations. Visitor visas (2.24 million in 2025) do not lead to NINo and are excluded from the route-mix percentages so the Work / Study / Family / Other proportions are interpretable. Humanitarian routes (BN(O), Ukraine schemes, Resettlement, Asylum) are surfaced as national totals only because the same nationality split is not provided in this dataset. EU/EEA nationals largely fall outside entry-clearance for short stays, so their NINo flow is materially understated by visa data alone.
How Folkestone and Hythe changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 107,969 in 2011 to 109,756 in 2021 (+1.7%). Non-UK-born residents went from 9,982 (9.2% of population) to 11,473 (10.5%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 97,987 90.8% 98,283 89.5% +296
Ireland-born 676 0.6% 540 0.5% -136
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 1,853 1.7% 1,958 1.8% +105
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 1,498 1.4% 2,070 1.9% +572
Rest of World 5,955 5.5% 6,905 6.3% +950
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Schools, first language
Across 46 state-funded schools in Folkestone and Hythe (15,239 pupils, 2024/25), 9.8% have a first language other than English. The published Kent-wide upper-tier figure is much lower because it averages every district in the county; this is the genuine Folkestone and Hythe number.
Pupils with first language other than English1,472 (9.8%)
Pupils with first language English13,564 (90.0%)
Free school meals32.6%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2024/25, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
South East labour market
Payrolled employments in the South East region (December 2024). Provides Folkestone and Hythe with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments4,551,700
Non-UK share19.7%
5-year change · Non-EU +256,300
5-year change · EU -40,200
Top industries by non-UK share (South East)
Administrative and support services 30.7%
Health and social work 30.3%
Accommodation and food service activities 28.7%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 24.7%
Mining and Quarrying 21.4%
Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2024. Folkestone and Hythe ranks at the 56th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k79.2
Violent crime / 1k37.9
Theft / 1k17.4
ASB / 1k14.2
Drug offences / 1k3.2
Year-on-year -12.0%
ONS recorded crime by Community Safety Partnership area, year ending March 2024 (Home Office police recorded crime). LA-level rates are CSP rates inherited where multiple LAs share a CSP.. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates, and policing priority. Cross-area comparison must take account of those factors. Hate crime and quality-of-life detail are not in this file.
Adult social care
Adult social care for Folkestone and Hythe residents is delivered by Kent County Council. Figures below are the county-wide ASC profile.
Council ASC spend, residential placements, and quality-of-life outcomes, 2023-24. Spend per head sits at the 0th percentile nationally.
NHS Digital ASCFR & SALT data tables 2023-24 (CASSR-level). Quality-of-life and DToC fields omitted (DToC discontinued post-COVID; ASCOF measures live in a separate publication).. ASC sits with upper-tier authorities only (counties, unitaries, London boroughs, mets); ~153 LAs in coverage and districts are not present. Spending is shaped by demographic composition, deprivation, and informal-care availability and direct cross-area comparison must control for those.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Folkestone and Hythe's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 22.6%
White: English 22.8%
Asian 10.9%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Folkestone and Hythe pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015-2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000-£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000-£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000-£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150-£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate53%
Avg home ownership63.4%
Avg social rent10.4%
Degree or above26.2%
No qualifications18.5%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Folkestone and Hythe are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up35.3%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount18,518
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)82
HMOs per 1,000 population0.75
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Folkestone and Hythe's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 67.6%
White: English: owned 68.3%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 50.1%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)63.4%
Social rent (2021)10.4%
Private rent (2021)21.8%
Ownership (2041)62%
Social rent (2041)10.4%
Social rent change-0.1pp
Data flag The foreign-born share is projected to rise by 24.6pp between 2021 and 2051 (Census 2021 TS004 country of birth, projected by the Hamilton-Perry method), above the 15pp line this site uses to flag housing demand. A threshold on one projected variable, not a housing-need assessment.
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Folkestone and Hythe, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Folkestone and Hythe on Asylum Stats →