Ceredigion

Wales · Wales
-17.8pp WBI 91.9% → 74.0% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
71,473 Population (2021 Census)
91.9% White British (2021)
80.3% White British (2041 projected)
74.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 91.9%
white other 4.3%
asian 1.5%
black 1.0%
mixed 0.8%
other 0.5%

Projected 2051

white british 74.0%
white other 9.8%
asian 7.0%
black 3.1%
mixed 3.5%
other 2.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.0pp Structural effect
+6.2pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.22 · Dissimilarity: 17.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 92.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 7.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 26.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.1%
notEnglishPct 5.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

27/100 Low Pressure Rank 234 of 320
Ethnic change17/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing9/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate50.7%
Avg home ownership66.9%
Avg social rent10.2%
Degree or above34.4%
No qualifications14.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.9%
Social rent (2021)10.2%
Private rent (2021)20.4%
Ownership (2041)61.5%
Social rent (2041)9.8%
Social rent change-0.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.1%
notEnglishPct 5.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+11.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census