Pembrokeshire

Wales · Wales
-15.8pp WBI 94.7% → 78.9% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
123,359 Population (2021 Census)
94.7% White British (2021)
84.9% White British (2041 projected)
78.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.7%
white other 2.9%
asian 0.9%
black 0.6%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 78.9%
white other 6.8%
asian 6.4%
black 2.7%
mixed 3.0%
other 2.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-0.9pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+6.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.15 · Dissimilarity: 20.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 95.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 4.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 19.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.6%
notEnglishPct 2.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

22/100 Stable Rank 269 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing7/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate53.3%
Avg home ownership66.3%
Avg social rent15.9%
Degree or above30.7%
No qualifications18.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.3%
Social rent (2021)15.9%
Private rent (2021)16.3%
Ownership (2041)62%
Social rent (2041)15.4%
Social rent change-0.5pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.6%
notEnglishPct 2.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census