Bath and North East Somerset

South West · England
-14.2pp WBI 85.6% → 71.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
193,409 Population (2021 Census)
85.6% White British (2021)
77.1% White British (2041 projected)
71.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 85.6%
white other 6.6%
asian 3.3%
black 0.9%
mixed 2.7%
other 0.8%

Projected 2051

white british 71.4%
white other 15.6%
asian 3.3%
black 0.8%
mixed 8.2%
other 0.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.8pp Structural effect
+2.6pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.34 · Dissimilarity: 12.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 38.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.1%
notEnglishPct 9.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

30/100 Low Pressure Rank 214 of 320
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum0/20
School4/20
Language0/20
Housing13/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56%
Avg home ownership63%
Avg social rent13.8%
Degree or above38.1%
No qualifications11.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)63%
Social rent (2021)13.8%
Private rent (2021)18.9%
Ownership (2041)60.8%
Social rent (2041)13.8%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 26,669 pupils.

WBI pupils81.7%
Minority pupils18.3%
EAL growth (projected)+3.9pp
WBI gap (school vs population)3.9pp

School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.1%
notEnglishPct 9.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+8.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census