North Somerset

South West · England
-15.0pp WBI 90.4% → 75.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
216,729 Population (2021 Census)
90.4% White British (2021)
81.8% White British (2041 projected)
75.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 90.4%
white other 5.3%
asian 1.5%
black 0.5%
mixed 1.7%
other 0.6%

Projected 2051

white british 75.4%
white other 17.3%
asian 1.6%
black 0.6%
mixed 4.4%
other 0.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+3.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.24 · Dissimilarity: 15.9

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 91.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 8.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 29.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.1%
notEnglishPct 7.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

33/100 Low Pressure Rank 190 of 320
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum2/20
School7/20
Language0/20
Housing11/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate58.6%
Avg home ownership70.6%
Avg social rent9.1%
Degree or above33.2%
No qualifications14.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)70.6%
Social rent (2021)9.1%
Private rent (2021)18.3%
Ownership (2041)68.3%
Social rent (2041)8.9%
Social rent change-0.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 31,212 pupils.

WBI pupils83.1%
Minority pupils16.9%
EAL growth (projected)+7.3pp
WBI gap (school vs population)7.3pp

Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.1%
notEnglishPct 7.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+8.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census