Bristol, City of

South West · England
-28.4pp WBI 71.6% → 43.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
472,467 Population (2021 Census)
71.6% White British (2021)
53.9% White British (2041 projected)
43.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 71.6%
white other 9.5%
asian 6.6%
black 5.9%
mixed 4.5%
other 1.9%

Projected 2051

white british 43.2%
white other 19.4%
asian 7.4%
black 7.2%
mixed 9.2%
other 13.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.2pp Structural effect
0.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.57 · Dissimilarity: 5.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 81.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 18.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 51.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.9%
notEnglishPct 20.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

48/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 94 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum11/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.9%
Avg home ownership47.1%
Avg social rent16.5%
Degree or above36.9%
No qualifications12.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)47.1%
Social rent (2021)16.5%
Private rent (2021)23.9%
Ownership (2041)42%
Social rent (2041)15.8%
Social rent change-0.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 89.9%
notEnglishPct 20.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+17.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census