Bristol, City of
South West · England · E06000023472,467 people at the 2021 Census. The White British majority here is projected to end around 2052. Twenty three datasets for this area, every figure sourced.
Projected Falls below half around 2052
338,452 of Bristol, City of’s 472,467 residents identified as White British at the 2021 Census. The projection takes that share from 71.6% to 51.1% by 2051. Interpolated between projection decades, so the year is approximate.
Ethnic composition trajectory
Solid to 2021 is Census. Dashed after that is the model, which was scored against Census 2021 before publication: a mean absolute error of 1.56 percentage points per decade and a bias of +0.05 points, close to unbiased. The shaded band is the 80% interval for White British share.
Ethnic composition, Bristol, City of
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% interval
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | White British | White Other | Asian | Black | Mixed | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 77.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| 2021 | 71.6% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| 2031 modelled | 65.5% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| 2041 modelled | 58.5% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% |
| 2051 modelled | 51.1% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.1% |
| 2061 modelled | 43.6% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% |
Ethnic composition: Bristol, City of
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±9.5pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 51.1% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 41.6% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 9.5pp on White British share in Bristol, City of by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Bristol, City of ranges from 55.0% to 60.1% by 2051: a 5.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 57.1% by 2051
Diversity index
diverse Shannon entropy: 0.57 · Dissimilarity: 5.7
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion Muslim
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | Christian | No religion | Muslim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 34.6% | 55.2% | 7.2% |
| 2031 modelled | 21.2% | 67.4% | 8.4% |
| 2041 modelled | 12.0% | 76.2% | 9.0% |
| 2051 modelled | 6.5% | 81.8% | 9.2% |
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | UK-born | Foreign-born |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 81.2% | 18.8% |
| 2031 modelled | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 2041 modelled | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 2051 modelled | 48.2% | 51.8% |
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English89.9%
Main language not English10.1%
Cannot speak English well1.4%
Cannot speak English at all0.2%
Total population 3+456,938
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Projection
Projected non-English growth +17.8pp
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
Service demand pressure
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum11/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20
New arrivals (NINo registrations)
Adults from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, rolling year ending Oct-25 to Dec-25. Bristol, City of ranks at the 93th percentile nationally for total NINo registrations.
Registrations (rolling year)5,907
Year-on-year -4.2%
NationalityRegistrationsShare
India 927 15.7%
China 832 14.1%
Pakistan 475 8.0%
Nigeria 305 5.2%
Bangladesh 211 3.6%
Somalia 138 2.3%
Sri Lanka 128 2.2%
Afghanistan 126 2.1%
Nepal 122 2.1%
United States 119 2.0%
DWP National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals (Stat-Xplore NINO database).. NINo registrations measure new arrivals into the National Insurance system, not total foreign-born population. A NINo is allocated when an overseas national requests one, usually to start work or claim benefits, so the figure misses students and dependants who never enter the labour market. Small (LA × nationality) cells are suppressed by Stat-Xplore for disclosure control.
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Bristol, City of from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2022 (9,382 registrations). Total over the full period: 141,617 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 5,982 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Bristol, City of in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Bristol, City of UK marker
Sex
Male share is 2.5pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
Why people are coming
For each of the top arriving nationalities in Bristol, City of, this is the national mix of visa routes used in 2025. It shows whether arrivals from that country are typically students, workers, on family routes (including refugee family reunion), or in some other category. Local-authority breakdowns of visa routes are not published, so we apply the national mix at nationality level.
India 927 in Bristol, City of (15.7%)
China 832 in Bristol, City of (14.1%)
Pakistan 475 in Bristol, City of (8.0%)
Nigeria 305 in Bristol, City of (5.2%)
Bangladesh 211 in Bristol, City of (3.6%)
Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026; Vis_D02 (Entry clearance visa outcomes by nationality, visa type, and outcome). Joined with DWP Stat-Xplore NINo registrations rolling year ending Q4 2025. Visa grants are issued at the point of entry-clearance application and are NOT the same population as NINo registrations. Visitor visas (2.24 million in 2025) do not lead to NINo and are excluded from the route-mix percentages so the Work / Study / Family / Other proportions are interpretable. Humanitarian routes (BN(O), Ukraine schemes, Resettlement, Asylum) are surfaced as national totals only because the same nationality split is not provided in this dataset. EU/EEA nationals largely fall outside entry-clearance for short stays, so their NINo flow is materially understated by visa data alone.
How Bristol, City of changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 428,234 in 2011 to 472,461 in 2021 (+10.3%). Non-UK-born residents went from 63,126 (14.7% of population) to 88,966 (18.8%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 365,108 85.3% 383,495 81.2% +18,387
Ireland-born 2,900 0.7% 2,430 0.5% -470
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 9,166 2.1% 15,883 3.4% +6,717
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 10,520 2.5% 18,935 4% +8,415
Rest of World 40,540 9.5% 51,718 10.9% +11,178
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Schools, first language
Across 166 state-funded schools in Bristol, City of (69,980 pupils, 2024/25), 23.2% have a first language other than English.
Pupils with first language other than English14,736 (23.2%)
Pupils with first language English48,088 (75.8%)
Free school meals30.8%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2024/25, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
South West labour market
Payrolled employments in the South West region (December 2024). Provides Bristol, City of with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments2,671,500
Non-UK share13.2%
5-year change · Non-EU +113,100
5-year change · EU -22,200
Top industries by non-UK share (South West)
Administrative and support services 23.1%
Health and social work 20.9%
Accommodation and food service activities 18.5%
Transportation and storage 17.6%
Manufacturing 15.7%
Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2024. Bristol, City of ranks at the 91th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k120.7
Violent crime / 1k41.4
Theft / 1k42.1
ASB / 1k18.4
Drug offences / 1k2.2
Year-on-year +6.5%
ONS recorded crime by Community Safety Partnership area, year ending March 2024 (Home Office police recorded crime). LA-level rates are CSP rates inherited where multiple LAs share a CSP.. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates, and policing priority. Cross-area comparison must take account of those factors. Hate crime and quality-of-life detail are not in this file.
Adult social care
Council ASC spend, residential placements, and quality-of-life outcomes, 2023-24. Spend per head sits at the 84th percentile nationally.
Gross spend / head£541
Residential / 10k 65+65
NHS Digital ASCFR & SALT data tables 2023-24 (CASSR-level). Quality-of-life and DToC fields omitted (DToC discontinued post-COVID; ASCOF measures live in a separate publication).. ASC sits with upper-tier authorities only (counties, unitaries, London boroughs, mets); ~153 LAs in coverage and districts are not present. Spending is shaped by demographic composition, deprivation, and informal-care availability and direct cross-area comparison must control for those.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Bristol, City of's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 17.3%
White: English 18.3%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 8.5%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
Special educational needs
EHCPs and primary need breakdown, 2024-25 academic year. 5-year EHCP growth at the 90th percentile nationally.
EHCPs / 10k150
Total EHCPs7,100
5-yr growth +99.7%
DfE Special educational needs in England, academic year 2024/25 (sen_phase_type_.csv + sen_secondary_need_.csv).. EHCP responsibility sits with upper-tier authorities only, ~153 LAs in coverage. Rate-per-10k uses total LA population (Census 2021) as denominator since school-age population is not in the ethnic-projections feed; cross-LA comparison is therefore directional rather than absolute. Rising EHCP counts may reflect improved identification, changes in diagnostic criteria, increased parental awareness, or genuine prevalence change.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Bristol, City of pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015-2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000-£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000-£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000-£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150-£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate56.9%
Avg home ownership47.1%
Avg social rent16.5%
Degree or above36.9%
No qualifications12.7%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Bristol, City of are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up32.1%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount64,806
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)6,904
HMOs per 1,000 population14.61
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Bristol, City of's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 58.2%
White: English: owned 60.9%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 33.5%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)47.1%
Social rent (2021)16.5%
Private rent (2021)23.9%
Ownership (2041)42%
Social rent (2041)15.8%
Social rent change-0.6pp
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Bristol, City of, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Bristol, City of on Asylum Stats →