Wolverhampton

West Midlands · England
-37.1pp WBI 54.7% → 17.6% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
263,726 Population (2021 Census)
54.7% White British (2021)
29.6% White British (2041 projected)
17.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 54.7%
white other 5.8%
asian 21.2%
black 9.3%
mixed 5.3%
other 3.6%

Projected 2051

white british 17.6%
white other 14.4%
asian 18.2%
black 34.1%
mixed 4.1%
other 11.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-9.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+1.2pp Structural effect
-4.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.74 · Dissimilarity: 21.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 12.8% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 77.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 22.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 57.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 85.0%
notEnglishPct 30.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

77/100 High Pressure Rank 3 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School19/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate41.4%
Avg home ownership36.8%
Avg social rent18.1%
Degree or above18.3%
No qualifications17.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)36.8%
Social rent (2021)18.1%
Private rent (2021)14.6%
Ownership (2041)26.3%
Social rent (2041)14.2%
Social rent change-3.9pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 50,239 pupils.

WBI pupils35.7%
Minority pupils64.3%
EAL growth (projected)+19.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)19.0pp

Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 85.0%
notEnglishPct 30.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+25.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census