Warrington

North West · England
-23.4pp WBI 88.1% → 64.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
210,973 Population (2021 Census)
88.2% White British (2021)
74.8% White British (2041 projected)
64.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 88.2%
white other 5.4%
asian 3.3%
black 0.8%
mixed 1.6%
other 0.9%

Projected 2051

white british 64.8%
white other 22.5%
asian 5.8%
black 1.1%
mixed 4.8%
other 1.1%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.0pp Structural effect
+2.6pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.29 · Dissimilarity: 13.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 90.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 9.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 32.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.6%
notEnglishPct 10.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

53/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 79 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum11/20
School11/20
Language0/20
Housing11/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate60.1%
Avg home ownership66.4%
Avg social rent14.7%
Degree or above31.7%
No qualifications15.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.4%
Social rent (2021)14.7%
Private rent (2021)14.9%
Ownership (2041)61.4%
Social rent (2041)14.7%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 32,781 pupils.

WBI pupils77.3%
Minority pupils22.7%
EAL growth (projected)+10.8pp
WBI gap (school vs population)10.8pp

Schools are 11pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.6%
notEnglishPct 10.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+13.3pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census