Torfaen

Wales · Wales
-14.2pp WBI 95.2% → 81.0% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
92,276 Population (2021 Census)
95.2% White British (2021)
86.4% White British (2041 projected)
81.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 95.2%
white other 1.9%
asian 1.3%
black 0.8%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 81.0%
white other 5.5%
asian 6.1%
black 2.4%
mixed 3.1%
other 1.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+6.1pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.15 · Dissimilarity: 20.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 96.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 3.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 14.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.5%
notEnglishPct 3.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

19/100 Stable Rank 293 of 320
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum1/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing6/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56%
Avg home ownership63.5%
Avg social rent23.3%
Degree or above26.3%
No qualifications21.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)63.5%
Social rent (2021)23.3%
Private rent (2021)11%
Ownership (2041)60.5%
Social rent (2041)22.4%
Social rent change-0.9pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.5%
notEnglishPct 3.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+8.9pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census