Tonbridge and Malling

South East · England
-9.2pp WBI 88.4% → 79.1% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
132,201 Population (2021 Census)
88.4% White British (2021)
82.9% White British (2041 projected)
79.1% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 88.4%
white other 4.9%
asian 2.9%
black 1.0%
mixed 2.2%
other 0.6%

Projected 2051

white british 79.1%
white other 9.8%
asian 4.7%
black 1.2%
mixed 4.7%
other 0.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.0pp Structural effect
+3.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.29 · Dissimilarity: 14.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 91.0%
Foreign-born (2021) 9.0%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 44.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.9%
notEnglishPct 6.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

26/100 Low Pressure Rank 245 of 320
Ethnic change8/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate61%
Avg home ownership69.1%
Avg social rent14.8%
Degree or above31.3%
No qualifications14.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)69.1%
Social rent (2021)14.8%
Private rent (2021)12.1%
Ownership (2041)67.7%
Social rent (2041)14.5%
Social rent change-0.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.9%
notEnglishPct 6.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+5.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census