Medway

South East · England
-40.6pp WBI 78.3% → 37.6% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
279,773 Population (2021 Census)
78.3% White British (2021)
54.3% White British (2041 projected)
37.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 78.3%
white other 6.0%
asian 5.9%
black 5.6%
mixed 2.8%
other 1.4%

Projected 2051

white british 37.6%
white other 8.9%
asian 6.3%
black 31.9%
mixed 5.5%
other 9.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
-0.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.47 · Dissimilarity: 5.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 86.2%
Foreign-born (2021) 13.8%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 42.6%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

54/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 74 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum4/20
School16/20
Language0/20
Housing14/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.9%
Avg home ownership58.1%
Avg social rent12%
Degree or above22.8%
No qualifications17.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)58.1%
Social rent (2021)12%
Private rent (2021)18.3%
Ownership (2041)46.7%
Social rent (2041)9.7%
Social rent change-2.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 50,337 pupils.

WBI pupils62.6%
Minority pupils37.4%
EAL growth (projected)+15.7pp
WBI gap (school vs population)15.7pp

Schools are 16pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+24pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census