Swale

South East · England
-15.1pp WBI 88.6% → 73.5% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
151,677 Population (2021 Census)
88.6% White British (2021)
79.9% White British (2041 projected)
73.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 88.6%
white other 5.3%
asian 1.5%
black 2.3%
mixed 1.8%
other 0.5%

Projected 2051

white british 73.5%
white other 11.8%
asian 1.5%
black 8.9%
mixed 3.8%
other 0.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.0pp Structural effect
+3.2pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.29 · Dissimilarity: 14.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 92.0%
Foreign-born (2021) 8.0%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 41.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.2%
notEnglishPct 7.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

31/100 Low Pressure Rank 207 of 320
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum2/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing17/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate57.7%
Avg home ownership65.5%
Avg social rent12.8%
Degree or above22.9%
No qualifications21.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)65.5%
Social rent (2021)12.8%
Private rent (2021)18%
Ownership (2041)62.2%
Social rent (2041)12.2%
Social rent change-0.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.2%
notEnglishPct 7.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+8.7pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census