Canterbury

South East · England
-11.0pp WBI 82.5% → 71.4% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
157,429 Population (2021 Census)
82.5% White British (2021)
75.9% White British (2041 projected)
71.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 82.5%
white other 6.7%
asian 4.1%
black 2.5%
mixed 2.7%
other 1.5%

Projected 2051

white british 71.4%
white other 12.4%
asian 4.4%
black 2.7%
mixed 7.2%
other 1.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-5.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.6pp Structural effect
+2.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.40 · Dissimilarity: 9.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 40.7%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.6%
notEnglishPct 10.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

31/100 Low Pressure Rank 204 of 320
Ethnic change10/20
Asylum7/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing14/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate50.3%
Avg home ownership60.9%
Avg social rent11.4%
Degree or above30.9%
No qualifications15.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)60.9%
Social rent (2021)11.4%
Private rent (2021)21.3%
Ownership (2041)59.3%
Social rent (2041)11.2%
Social rent change-0.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.6%
notEnglishPct 10.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+6.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census