Sefton

North West · England
-14.2pp WBI 91.8% → 77.6% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
279,233 Population (2021 Census)
91.8% White British (2021)
84.0% White British (2041 projected)
77.6% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 91.8%
white other 4.0%
asian 1.5%
black 0.5%
mixed 1.4%
other 0.7%

Projected 2051

white british 77.6%
white other 15.3%
asian 2.3%
black 0.7%
mixed 3.3%
other 0.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+4.5pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.22 · Dissimilarity: 17.3

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 24.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.4%
notEnglishPct 7.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

33/100 Low Pressure Rank 186 of 320
Ethnic change12/20
Asylum8/20
School5/20
Language0/20
Housing9/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.6%
Avg home ownership65.7%
Avg social rent14.1%
Degree or above29.3%
No qualifications19.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)65.7%
Social rent (2021)14.1%
Private rent (2021)18.1%
Ownership (2041)63.6%
Social rent (2041)13.9%
Social rent change-0.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 40,061 pupils.

WBI pupils86.8%
Minority pupils13.2%
EAL growth (projected)+5.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)5.0pp

School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.4%
notEnglishPct 7.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+7.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census