Bury

North West · England
-36.2pp WBI 78.2% → 42.0% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
193,851 Population (2021 Census)
78.2% White British (2021)
56.6% White British (2041 projected)
42.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 78.2%
white other 4.7%
asian 10.6%
black 1.9%
mixed 2.6%
other 1.9%

Projected 2051

white british 42.0%
white other 6.9%
asian 23.8%
black 7.2%
mixed 5.8%
other 14.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-7.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.4pp Structural effect
-0.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.46 · Dissimilarity: 6.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 22.4% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.9%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.1%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 52.4%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

63/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 29 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum10/20
School13/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate52.9%
Avg home ownership58.5%
Avg social rent13.1%
Degree or above28.5%
No qualifications16.2%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)58.5%
Social rent (2021)13.1%
Private rent (2021)15.9%
Ownership (2041)48.6%
Social rent (2041)11.8%
Social rent change-1.3pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 28,856 pupils.

WBI pupils65.1%
Minority pupils34.9%
EAL growth (projected)+13.1pp
WBI gap (school vs population)13.1pp

Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+21.6pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census