UK Demographics Population data for every community

Trafford

North West · England
-39.2pp WBI 72.1% → 33.0% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
235,053 Population (2021 Census)
72.1% White British (2021)
48.4% White British (2041 projected)
33.0% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 72.1%
white other 5.6%
asian 12.6%
black 3.5%
mixed 3.8%
other 2.5%

Projected 2051

white british 33.0%
white other 4.8%
asian 27.7%
black 7.5%
mixed 7.7%
other 19.4%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-8.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
0.0pp Structural effect
-1.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.55 · Dissimilarity: 5.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 15.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 85.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 14.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 44.7%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.8%
notEnglishPct 14.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

60/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 43 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum8/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate52.9%
Avg home ownership57.7%
Avg social rent12.9%
Degree or above36.2%
No qualifications11.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)57.7%
Social rent (2021)12.9%
Private rent (2021)13.3%
Ownership (2041)46.4%
Social rent (2041)11.4%
Social rent change-1.5pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 43,374 pupils.

WBI pupils55.0%
Minority pupils45.0%
EAL growth (projected)+17.1pp
WBI gap (school vs population)17.1pp

Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.8%
notEnglishPct 14.3%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+23.7pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Asylum and immigration data Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area. View Trafford on Asylum Stats →
Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census