Trafford
North West · EnglandEthnic composition trajectory
Census 2011 and 2021 observed, Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061. Shaded band shows 80% confidence interval for White British share.
Ethnic composition, Trafford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Ethnic composition: Trafford
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±19.1pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 33.0% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 52.1% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 19.1pp on White British share in Trafford by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Trafford ranges from 48.5% to 58.3% by 2051: a 9.8pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.4% by 2051
Diversity index
diverse Shannon entropy: 0.55 · Dissimilarity: 5.8
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Muslim population projected: 15.6% by 2051
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English92.8%
Main language not English7.2%
Cannot speak English well1.0%
Cannot speak English at all0.2%
Total population 3+227,383
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Projection
Projected non-English growth +23.7pp
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
Service demand pressure
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum8/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20
New arrivals (NINo registrations)
Adults from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, rolling year ending Oct-25 to Dec-25. Trafford ranks at the 71th percentile nationally for total NINo registrations.
Registrations (rolling year)1,361
Year-on-year -9.0%
NationalityRegistrationsShare
Pakistan 201 14.8%
India 176 12.9%
Other / unknown 151 11.1%
China 120 8.8%
Hong Kong 99 7.3%
Nigeria 83 6.1%
Eritrea 71 5.2%
Sudan 62 4.6%
Iran 58 4.3%
Ireland 37 2.7%
DWP National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals (Stat-Xplore NINO database).. NINo registrations measure new arrivals into the National Insurance system, not total foreign-born population. A NINo is allocated when an overseas national requests one, usually to start work or claim benefits, so the figure misses students and dependants who never enter the labour market. Small (LA × nationality) cells are suppressed by Stat-Xplore for disclosure control.
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Trafford from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2022 (2,817 registrations). Total over the full period: 28,786 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 1,477 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Trafford in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Trafford UK marker
Sex
Male share is 1.0pp higher than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
Why people are coming
For each of the top arriving nationalities in Trafford, this is the national mix of visa routes used in 2025. It shows whether arrivals from that country are typically students, workers, on family routes (including refugee family reunion), or in some other category. Local-authority breakdowns of visa routes are not published, so we apply the national mix at nationality level.
Pakistan 201 in Trafford (14.8%)
India 176 in Trafford (12.9%)
China 120 in Trafford (8.8%)
Hong Kong 99 in Trafford (7.3%)
Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending March 2026 (released 21 May 2026); Vis_D02 (Entry clearance visa outcomes by nationality, visa type, and outcome). Joined with DWP Stat-Xplore NINo registrations rolling year ending Q4 2025. Visa grants are issued at the point of entry-clearance application and are NOT the same population as NINo registrations. Visitor visas (2.24 million in 2025) do not lead to NINo and are excluded from the route-mix percentages so the Work / Study / Family / Other proportions are interpretable. Humanitarian routes (BN(O), Ukraine schemes, Resettlement, Asylum) are surfaced as national totals only because the same nationality split is not provided in this dataset. EU/EEA nationals largely fall outside entry-clearance for short stays, so their NINo flow is materially understated by visa data alone.
How Trafford changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 226,578 in 2011 to 235,059 in 2021 (+3.7%). Non-UK-born residents went from 25,401 (11.2% of population) to 34,943 (14.9%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 201,177 88.8% 200,116 85.1% -1,061
Ireland-born 3,620 1.6% 2,785 1.2% -835
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 2,399 1.1% 3,415 1.5% +1,016
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 3,017 1.3% 3,454 1.5% +437
Rest of World 16,365 7.2% 25,289 10.8% +8,924
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Working and not working, by passport group
Census 2021 employment status of Trafford residents aged 16 and over, by passport held. Three numbers shown per group:
- The first three columns sum to 100% for each row. Every adult is either in work, unemployed, or inactive.
- In work: share of all adults aged 16+ who have a paid job.
- Unemployed: share of all adults aged 16+ who are looking for work but do not have a job.
- Inactive: share of all adults aged 16+ who are not in the labour market. Includes retirees, full-time students, those looking after family, the long-term sick.
- Employment rate (last column): share of those who are trying to work (excluding full-time students) who have a job. Almost always higher than In Work because it leaves out everyone who is retired, raising kids, or in full-time study.
Passport group Pop 16+ In work Unemployed Inactive Employment rate
UK passport 158,480 62.5% 2.8% 34.7% 96.3%
Irish passport 2,880 52.5% 1.7% 45.9% 97.2%
EU member country passport 5,596 75.1% 5.5% 19.4% 94.2%
Rest of Europe (non-EU) 291 69.8% 3.8% 26.5% 95.2%
African passport 866 64.2% 7.5% 28.3% 91.0%
Middle East / Asian passport 3,841 59.8% 4.4% 35.8% 93.8%
Americas / Caribbean passport 671 63.2% 6.7% 30.1% 91.4%
Oceania / Antarctica passport 190 81.1% 1.6% 17.4% 98.1%
No passport held 13,341 23.4% 3.7% 72.9% 87.1%
ONS Census 2021 RM021, Economic activity status by passports held, by local authority district. NOMIS NM_2121_1. Stock measure on Census Day (21 March 2021). Passports-held is a proxy for nationality (UK = UK passport holder). Employment rate excludes full-time students from the denominator (the standard ONS definition). The 'inactive' category includes retirees, full-time students who do not work, those looking after family, long-term sick, and other reasons.
Schools, first language
Across 101 state-funded schools in Trafford (45,585 pupils, 2024/25), 23.7% have a first language other than English.
Pupils with first language other than English10,404 (23.7%)
Pupils with first language English33,330 (76.0%)
Free school meals18.5%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2024/25, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
North West labour market
Payrolled employments in the North West region (December 2024). Provides Trafford with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments3,531,600
Non-UK share14.3%
5-year change · Non-EU +192,100
5-year change · EU -16,000
Top industries by non-UK share (North West)
Administrative and support services 26.3%
Accommodation and food service activities 22.3%
Health and social work 19.1%
Transportation and storage 16.5%
Households, Extraterritorial Organisations and Unknown Entities 15.9%
Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2024. Trafford ranks at the 55th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k78.0
Violent crime / 1k27.9
Theft / 1k25.1
ASB / 1k12.6
Drug offences / 1k3.6
Year-on-year -10.8%
ONS recorded crime by Community Safety Partnership area, year ending March 2024 (Home Office police recorded crime). LA-level rates are CSP rates inherited where multiple LAs share a CSP.. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates, and policing priority. Cross-area comparison must take account of those factors. Hate crime and quality-of-life detail are not in this file.
Adult social care
Council ASC spend, residential placements, and quality-of-life outcomes, 2023-24. Spend per head sits at the 44th percentile nationally.
Gross spend / head£450
Residential / 10k 65+128
NHS Digital ASCFR & SALT data tables 2023-24 (CASSR-level). Quality-of-life and DToC fields omitted (DToC discontinued post-COVID; ASCOF measures live in a separate publication).. ASC sits with upper-tier authorities only (counties, unitaries, London boroughs, mets); ~153 LAs in coverage and districts are not present. Spending is shaped by demographic composition, deprivation, and informal-care availability and direct cross-area comparison must control for those.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Trafford's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 17.2%
White: English 17.4%
Asian 11.8%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
Special educational needs
EHCPs and primary need breakdown, 2024-25 academic year. 5-year EHCP growth at the 27th percentile nationally.
EHCPs / 10k205
Total EHCPs4,822
5-yr growth +46.4%
DfE Special educational needs in England, academic year 2024/25 (sen_phase_type_.csv + sen_secondary_need_.csv).. EHCP responsibility sits with upper-tier authorities only, ~153 LAs in coverage. Rate-per-10k uses total LA population (Census 2021) as denominator since school-age population is not in the ethnic-projections feed; cross-LA comparison is therefore directional rather than absolute. Rising EHCP counts may reflect improved identification, changes in diagnostic criteria, increased parental awareness, or genuine prevalence change.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Trafford pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015–2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000–£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000–£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000–£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150–£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate52.9%
Avg home ownership57.7%
Avg social rent12.9%
Degree or above36.2%
No qualifications11.7%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Trafford are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up33.4%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount34,057
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)194
HMOs per 1,000 population0.83
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Trafford's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 71.7%
White: English: owned 72.7%
Asian: owned 69.0%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)57.7%
Social rent (2021)12.9%
Private rent (2021)13.3%
Ownership (2041)46.4%
Social rent (2041)11.4%
Social rent change-1.5pp
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
School demographics
DfE School Census 2024/25. 43,374 pupils.
White British pupils55.0%
Minority pupils45.0%
EAL growth (projected)+17.1pp
White British gap (school vs population)17.1pp
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Trafford, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Trafford on Asylum Stats →