Tameside

North West · England
-38.5pp WBI 82.4% → 43.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
231,070 Population (2021 Census)
82.4% White British (2021)
62.1% White British (2041 projected)
43.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 82.4%
white other 3.2%
asian 9.2%
black 2.3%
mixed 2.1%
other 0.8%

Projected 2051

white british 43.9%
white other 4.5%
asian 17.4%
black 30.0%
mixed 3.6%
other 0.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.2pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.7pp Structural effect
+0.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.39 · Dissimilarity: 8.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 15.4% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 89.7%
Foreign-born (2021) 10.3%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 34.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.1%
notEnglishPct 11.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

55/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 67 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum11/20
School12/20
Language0/20
Housing12/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate53.7%
Avg home ownership53.9%
Avg social rent18.8%
Degree or above21.8%
No qualifications19.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)53.9%
Social rent (2021)18.8%
Private rent (2021)15.8%
Ownership (2041)42.7%
Social rent (2041)15.2%
Social rent change-3.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 36,967 pupils.

WBI pupils70.6%
Minority pupils29.4%
EAL growth (projected)+11.8pp
WBI gap (school vs population)11.8pp

Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.1%
notEnglishPct 11.8%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+20.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census