Rochdale

North West · England
-40.1pp WBI 70.0% → 29.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
223,771 Population (2021 Census)
70.0% White British (2021)
45.9% White British (2041 projected)
29.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 70.0%
white other 3.9%
asian 18.5%
black 3.5%
mixed 2.4%
other 1.6%

Projected 2051

white british 29.9%
white other 7.0%
asian 20.3%
black 34.5%
mixed 3.8%
other 4.6%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-8.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+0.1pp Structural effect
-2.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.54 · Dissimilarity: 10.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 27.2% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 84.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 15.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 45.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.5%
notEnglishPct 18.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

67/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 23 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum15/20
School17/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate45.1%
Avg home ownership46.7%
Avg social rent16.5%
Degree or above20.7%
No qualifications18.1%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)46.7%
Social rent (2021)16.5%
Private rent (2021)14.8%
Ownership (2041)34.2%
Social rent (2041)13.3%
Social rent change-3.2pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 37,780 pupils.

WBI pupils53.1%
Minority pupils46.9%
EAL growth (projected)+16.9pp
WBI gap (school vs population)16.9pp

Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 90.5%
notEnglishPct 18.9%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+24.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census