North East Lincolnshire

Yorkshire and The Humber · England
-18.4pp WBI 92.6% → 74.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
156,967 Population (2021 Census)
92.6% White British (2021)
82.9% White British (2041 projected)
74.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 92.6%
white other 3.6%
asian 1.6%
black 0.6%
mixed 1.0%
other 0.7%

Projected 2051

white british 74.2%
white other 19.2%
asian 2.0%
black 0.8%
mixed 2.7%
other 1.0%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.8pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+4.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.20 · Dissimilarity: 18.1

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 93.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 6.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 36.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.1%
notEnglishPct 7.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

44/100 Low Pressure Rank 117 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum9/20
School6/20
Language0/20
Housing15/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.1%
Avg home ownership62.8%
Avg social rent13%
Degree or above21.2%
No qualifications23.7%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)62.8%
Social rent (2021)13%
Private rent (2021)22.2%
Ownership (2041)59.8%
Social rent (2041)13.1%
Social rent change+0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 23,001 pupils.

WBI pupils86.4%
Minority pupils13.6%
EAL growth (projected)+6.2pp
WBI gap (school vs population)6.2pp

Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 96.1%
notEnglishPct 7.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+9.7pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census