Newport

Wales · Wales
-18.8pp WBI 80.3% → 61.5% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
159,592 Population (2021 Census)
80.4% White British (2021)
67.6% White British (2041 projected)
61.5% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 80.4%
white other 5.2%
asian 7.6%
black 3.7%
mixed 1.4%
other 1.7%

Projected 2051

white british 61.5%
white other 9.3%
asian 14.2%
black 4.9%
mixed 5.5%
other 4.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.6pp Structural effect
+0.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.43 · Dissimilarity: 5.9

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 13.5% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.8%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.2%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 39.1%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

43/100 Low Pressure Rank 125 of 320
Ethnic change19/20
Asylum10/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing13/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate53.8%
Avg home ownership56.1%
Avg social rent17.3%
Degree or above27.5%
No qualifications19.4%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)56.1%
Social rent (2021)17.3%
Private rent (2021)15.3%
Ownership (2041)51%
Social rent (2041)16.6%
Social rent change-0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 93.5%
notEnglishPct 13.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+12.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census