Monmouthshire

Wales · Wales
-16.4pp WBI 94.2% → 77.8% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
92,960 Population (2021 Census)
94.2% White British (2021)
84.1% White British (2041 projected)
77.8% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 94.2%
white other 2.7%
asian 1.3%
black 0.7%
mixed 0.7%
other 0.3%

Projected 2051

white british 77.8%
white other 6.8%
asian 6.9%
black 2.8%
mixed 3.4%
other 2.3%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-1.9pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.3pp Structural effect
+5.8pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.17 · Dissimilarity: 19.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 94.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 5.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 21.2%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.4%
notEnglishPct 3.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

23/100 Stable Rank 265 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing8/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate55.8%
Avg home ownership70.7%
Avg social rent13.8%
Degree or above38.6%
No qualifications15.5%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)70.7%
Social rent (2021)13.8%
Private rent (2021)13.5%
Ownership (2041)66.5%
Social rent (2041)13.1%
Social rent change-0.6pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.4%
notEnglishPct 3.2%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.1pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census