Cardiff

Wales · Wales
-17.7pp WBI 73.6% → 55.9% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
362,310 Population (2021 Census)
73.6% White British (2021)
61.1% White British (2041 projected)
55.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 73.6%
white other 5.6%
asian 9.7%
black 5.7%
mixed 2.1%
other 3.3%

Projected 2051

white british 55.9%
white other 9.0%
asian 15.1%
black 6.4%
mixed 6.8%
other 6.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
0.0pp Structural effect
-0.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

diverse Shannon entropy: 0.54 · Dissimilarity: 2.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 15.6% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 83.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 16.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 47.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.1%
notEnglishPct 17.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

53/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 77 of 320
Ethnic change19/20
Asylum18/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing16/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate49.3%
Avg home ownership48.8%
Avg social rent14.5%
Degree or above33.9%
No qualifications13.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)48.8%
Social rent (2021)14.5%
Private rent (2021)21.2%
Ownership (2041)44.2%
Social rent (2041)14.5%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 91.1%
notEnglishPct 17.7%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+12.4pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census