Caerphilly
Wales · WalesEthnic composition trajectory
Census 2011 and 2021 observed, Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061. Shaded band shows 80% confidence interval for White British share.
Ethnic composition, Caerphilly
White British White Other Asian 80% CI
Ethnic composition: Caerphilly
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±0.0pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 82.4% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 82.4% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 0.0pp on White British share in Caerphilly by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Diversity index
low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.12 · Dissimilarity: 21.7
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English98.8%
Main language not English1.2%
Cannot speak English well0.2%
Cannot speak English at all0.0%
Total population 3+170,688
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Projection
Projected non-English growth +8.5pp
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
Service demand pressure
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing5/20
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Caerphilly from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2023 (262 registrations). Total over the full period: 2,482 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 126 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Caerphilly in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Caerphilly UK marker
Sex
Male share is 5.2pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
How Caerphilly changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 178,806 in 2011 to 175,955 in 2021 (-1.6%). Non-UK-born residents went from 4,206 (2.4% of population) to 5,183 (2.9%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 174,600 97.6% 170,772 97.1% -3,828
Ireland-born 356 0.2% 287 0.2% -69
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 981 0.5% 1,053 0.6% +72
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 697 0.4% 1,285 0.7% +588
Rest of World 2,172 1.2% 2,558 1.5% +386
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Wales labour market
Payrolled employments in the Wales region (December 2024). Provides Caerphilly with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments1,386,800
Non-UK share9.7%
5-year change · Non-EU +53,200
5-year change · EU -6,400
Top industries by non-UK share (Wales)
Administrative and support services 18.4%
Accommodation and food service activities 16.8%
Health and social work 13.8%
Manufacturing 11.8%
Transportation and storage 11.4%
Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Caerphilly's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 24.4%
White: English 24.5%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 12.5%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Caerphilly pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015–2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000–£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000–£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000–£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150–£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate56.1%
Avg home ownership66.8%
Avg social rent18.5%
Degree or above24.9%
No qualifications23.8%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Caerphilly are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)39
HMOs per 1,000 population0.22
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Caerphilly's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 68.0%
White: English: owned 68.1%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 58.9%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)66.8%
Social rent (2021)18.5%
Private rent (2021)13.2%
Ownership (2041)63.7%
Social rent (2041)17.7%
Social rent change-0.8pp
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Caerphilly, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Caerphilly on Asylum Stats →