Caerphilly

Wales · Wales
-13.9pp WBI 96.3% → 82.4% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
175,955 Population (2021 Census)
96.3% White British (2021)
87.7% White British (2041 projected)
82.4% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 96.3%
white other 1.5%
asian 0.9%
black 0.6%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.2%

Projected 2051

white british 82.4%
white other 4.9%
asian 5.6%
black 2.3%
mixed 2.9%
other 1.8%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.4pp Structural effect
+6.7pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.12 · Dissimilarity: 21.7

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 97.1%
Foreign-born (2021) 2.9%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 12.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.8%
notEnglishPct 2.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

20/100 Stable Rank 277 of 320
Ethnic change13/20
Asylum3/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing5/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate56.1%
Avg home ownership66.8%
Avg social rent18.5%
Degree or above24.9%
No qualifications23.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.8%
Social rent (2021)18.5%
Private rent (2021)13.2%
Ownership (2041)63.7%
Social rent (2041)17.7%
Social rent change-0.8pp

Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 98.8%
notEnglishPct 2.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+8.5pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census