Middlesbrough

North East · England
-28.3pp WBI 79.5% → 51.2% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
143,922 Population (2021 Census)
79.5% White British (2021)
62.7% White British (2041 projected)
51.2% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 79.5%
white other 2.9%
asian 10.5%
black 2.6%
mixed 2.1%
other 2.4%

Projected 2051

white british 51.2%
white other 5.7%
asian 17.7%
black 14.6%
mixed 3.3%
other 7.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-6.5pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.5pp Structural effect
+0.3pp Local effect

Diversity index

moderately diverse Shannon entropy: 0.44 · Dissimilarity: 7.0

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Muslim population projected: 14.0% by 2051

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 87.7%
Foreign-born (2021) 12.3%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 52.8%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.4%
notEnglishPct 15.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

74/100 High Pressure Rank 8 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum20/20
School14/20
Language0/20
Housing20/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate47.5%
Avg home ownership47.6%
Avg social rent20.2%
Degree or above23%
No qualifications20.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)47.6%
Social rent (2021)20.2%
Private rent (2021)19%
Ownership (2041)39.4%
Social rent (2041)17.5%
Social rent change-2.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 25,551 pupils.

WBI pupils65.5%
Minority pupils34.5%
EAL growth (projected)+14.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)14.0pp

Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 92.4%
notEnglishPct 15.1%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+16.8pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census