Lewisham

London · England
-16.3pp WBI 37.2% → 20.9% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
300,553 Population (2021 Census)
37.2% White British (2021)
26.6% White British (2041 projected)
20.9% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 37.2%
white other 14.3%
asian 9.0%
black 26.8%
mixed 8.1%
other 4.7%

Projected 2051

white british 20.9%
white other 14.1%
asian 7.0%
black 19.6%
mixed 10.2%
other 28.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-4.3pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
+3.1pp Structural effect
-1.0pp Local effect

Diversity index

highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.87 · Dissimilarity: 37.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 64.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 35.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 71.9%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 83.8%
notEnglishPct 32.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

50/100 Moderate Pressure Rank 89 of 320
Ethnic change16/20
Asylum4/20
School12/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate45.6%
Avg home ownership26.8%
Avg social rent17.8%
Degree or above32.1%
No qualifications9.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)26.8%
Social rent (2021)17.8%
Private rent (2021)19.6%
Ownership (2041)26.7%
Social rent (2041)18.6%
Social rent change+0.7pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 36,241 pupils.

WBI pupils25.2%
Minority pupils74.8%
EAL growth (projected)+12.0pp
WBI gap (school vs population)12.0pp

Schools are 12pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 83.8%
notEnglishPct 32.4%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.6pp

NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census