Lancaster

North West · England
-6.1pp WBI 87.9% → 81.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
142,939 Population (2021 Census)
87.8% White British (2021)
84.2% White British (2041 projected)
81.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 87.8%
white other 5.3%
asian 3.6%
black 0.8%
mixed 1.5%
other 0.9%

Projected 2051

white british 81.7%
white other 9.1%
asian 3.7%
black 1.1%
mixed 3.1%
other 1.2%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-3.7pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-0.9pp Structural effect
+3.6pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.30 · Dissimilarity: 13.4

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 90.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 9.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 45.7%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.7%
notEnglishPct 10.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

32/100 Low Pressure Rank 194 of 320
Ethnic change6/20
Asylum8/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate52.5%
Avg home ownership64.5%
Avg social rent9.9%
Degree or above30.9%
No qualifications15%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64.5%
Social rent (2021)9.9%
Private rent (2021)21.3%
Ownership (2041)63.5%
Social rent (2041)10%
Social rent change+0.1pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 94.7%
notEnglishPct 10.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+3.7pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census