Islington
London · England · E09000019216,590 people at the 2021 Census. Already below a White British majority at the 2021 Census. Twenty three datasets for this area, every figure sourced.
Ethnic composition trajectory
Solid to 2021 is Census. Dashed after that is the model, which was scored against Census 2021 before publication: a mean absolute error of 1.56 percentage points per decade and a bias of +0.05 points, close to unbiased. The shaded band is the 80% interval for White British share.
This area is shown to 2041 rather than 2061. Past that point the model puts a residual Census category above a quarter of the population and several times its 2021 share, which is unconstrained compounding rather than a forecast. Those years are withheld here until the model is reconciled. See the limitations.
Ethnic composition, Islington
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% interval
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | White British | White Other | Asian | Black | Mixed | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 47.7% | 20.5% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 2021 | 39.8% | 22.5% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| 2031 modelled | 32.0% | 20.2% | 10.3% | 16.2% | 9.3% | 12.0% |
| 2041 modelled | 24.6% | 16.9% | 10.3% | 18.9% | 11.0% | 18.4% |
Ethnic composition: Islington
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Islington ranges from 25.4% to 29.4% by 2051: a 3.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 27.0% by 2051
Diversity index
highly diverse Shannon entropy: 0.88 · Dissimilarity: 34.7
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion Muslim
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | Christian | No religion | Muslim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 37.6% | 44.3% | 12.9% |
| 2031 modelled | 27.7% | 51.5% | 13.9% |
| 2041 modelled | 19.1% | 56.0% | 14.0% |
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
Census, observed Projected, modelled
Show the figures
| Year | UK-born | Foreign-born |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 2031 modelled | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 2041 modelled | 35.2% | 64.8% |
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English81.0%
Main language not English19.0%
Cannot speak English well2.5%
Cannot speak English at all0.4%
Total population 3+209,638
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Projection
Projected non-English growth +15.9pp
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
Service demand pressure
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum1/20
School15/20
Language0/20
Housing18/20
New arrivals (NINo registrations)
Adults from overseas registering for a National Insurance number, rolling year ending Oct-25 to Dec-25. Islington ranks at the 92th percentile nationally for total NINo registrations.
Registrations (rolling year)5,367
Year-on-year -14.2%
NationalityRegistrationsShare
China 629 11.7%
Australia 604 11.3%
India 450 8.4%
United States 437 8.1%
Ireland 290 5.4%
New Zealand 262 4.9%
Canada 175 3.3%
France 163 3.0%
Turkey 153 2.9%
Italy 110 2.0%
DWP National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals (Stat-Xplore NINO database).. NINo registrations measure new arrivals into the National Insurance system, not total foreign-born population. A NINo is allocated when an overseas national requests one, usually to start work or claim benefits, so the figure misses students and dependants who never enter the labour market. Small (LA × nationality) cells are suppressed by Stat-Xplore for disclosure control.
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Islington from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2022 (9,059 registrations). Total over the full period: 158,404 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
Who is arriving
Age and sex profile of 5,512 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Islington in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.
Age at registration
Islington UK marker
Sex
Male share is 9.9pp lower than the UK average (54.4%).
DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.
Why people are coming
For each of the top arriving nationalities in Islington, this is the national mix of visa routes used in 2025. It shows whether arrivals from that country are typically students, workers, on family routes (including refugee family reunion), or in some other category. Local-authority breakdowns of visa routes are not published, so we apply the national mix at nationality level.
China 629 in Islington (11.7%)
Australia 604 in Islington (11.3%)
India 450 in Islington (8.4%)
United States 437 in Islington (8.1%)
No entry-clearance visa data. United States is non-visa-national or in the Common Travel Area, so visa-route mix is not informative for this country. NINo flow is the better signal.
Ireland 290 in Islington (5.4%)
Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026; Vis_D02 (Entry clearance visa outcomes by nationality, visa type, and outcome). Joined with DWP Stat-Xplore NINo registrations rolling year ending Q4 2025. Visa grants are issued at the point of entry-clearance application and are NOT the same population as NINo registrations. Visitor visas (2.24 million in 2025) do not lead to NINo and are excluded from the route-mix percentages so the Work / Study / Family / Other proportions are interpretable. Humanitarian routes (BN(O), Ukraine schemes, Resettlement, Asylum) are surfaced as national totals only because the same nationality split is not provided in this dataset. EU/EEA nationals largely fall outside entry-clearance for short stays, so their NINo flow is materially understated by visa data alone.
How Islington changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 206,125 in 2011 to 216,589 in 2021 (+5.1%). Non-UK-born residents went from 73,030 (35.4% of population) to 86,376 (39.9%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 133,095 64.6% 130,213 60.1% -2,882
Ireland-born 5,679 2.8% 4,116 1.9% -1,563
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 13,587 6.6% 20,004 9.2% +6,417
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 5,795 2.8% 7,184 3.3% +1,389
Rest of World 47,969 23.3% 55,072 25.4% +7,103
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Schools, first language
Across 73 state-funded schools in Islington (24,037 pupils, 2024/25), 37.8% have a first language other than English.
Pupils with first language other than English8,756 (37.8%)
Pupils with first language English14,348 (61.9%)
Free school meals51.7%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2024/25, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
London labour market
Payrolled employments in the London region (December 2024). Provides Islington with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments4,688,800
Non-UK share42.3%
5-year change · Non-EU +429,400
5-year change · EU -133,500
Top industries by non-UK share (London)
Accommodation and food service activities 62.9%
Administrative and support services 54.5%
Households, Extraterritorial Organisations and Unknown Entities 49.8%
Health and social work 46.9%
Manufacturing 46.1%
Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2024. Islington ranks at the 96th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k130.2
Violent crime / 1k32.1
Theft / 1k65.4
ASB / 1k35.3
Drug offences / 1k5.3
Year-on-year +1.2%
ONS recorded crime by Community Safety Partnership area, year ending March 2024 (Home Office police recorded crime). LA-level rates are CSP rates inherited where multiple LAs share a CSP.. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates, and policing priority. Cross-area comparison must take account of those factors. Hate crime and quality-of-life detail are not in this file.
Adult social care
Council ASC spend, residential placements, and quality-of-life outcomes, 2023-24. Spend per head sits at the 92th percentile nationally.
Gross spend / head£578
Residential / 10k 65+71
NHS Digital ASCFR & SALT data tables 2023-24 (CASSR-level). Quality-of-life and DToC fields omitted (DToC discontinued post-COVID; ASCOF measures live in a separate publication).. ASC sits with upper-tier authorities only (counties, unitaries, London boroughs, mets); ~153 LAs in coverage and districts are not present. Spending is shaped by demographic composition, deprivation, and informal-care availability and direct cross-area comparison must control for those.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Islington's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 15.6%
White: English 17.6%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 9.2%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
Special educational needs
EHCPs and primary need breakdown, 2024-25 academic year. 5-year EHCP growth at the 29th percentile nationally.
EHCPs / 10k163
Total EHCPs3,534
5-yr growth +48.4%
DfE Special educational needs in England, academic year 2024/25 (sen_phase_type_.csv + sen_secondary_need_.csv).. EHCP responsibility sits with upper-tier authorities only, ~153 LAs in coverage. Rate-per-10k uses total LA population (Census 2021) as denominator since school-age population is not in the ethnic-projections feed; cross-LA comparison is therefore directional rather than absolute. Rising EHCP counts may reflect improved identification, changes in diagnostic criteria, increased parental awareness, or genuine prevalence change.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Islington pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015-2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000-£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000-£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000-£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150-£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate52.7%
Avg home ownership20.9%
Avg social rent30.3%
Degree or above43.7%
No qualifications10.4%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Islington are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up35.4%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount37,368
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)3,346
HMOs per 1,000 population15.45
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Islington's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 33.4%
White: English: owned 37.4%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 25.8%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)20.9%
Social rent (2021)30.3%
Private rent (2021)25.6%
Ownership (2041)18.3%
Social rent (2041)33.4%
Social rent change+3.1pp
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
School demographics
DfE School Census 2024/25. 22,766 pupils.
White British pupils25.2%
Minority pupils74.8%
EAL growth (projected)+14.5pp
White British gap (school vs population)14.6pp
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Islington, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Islington on Asylum Stats →