Isles of Scilly

South West · England
-22.7pp WBI 94.4% → 71.7% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
2,055 Population (2021 Census)
93.7% White British (2021)
79.5% White British (2041 projected)
71.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 93.7%
white other 3.8%
asian 0.3%
black 0.7%
mixed 0.6%
other 0.9%

Projected 2051

white british 71.7%
white other 11.3%
asian 6.3%
black 3.2%
mixed 3.7%
other 3.9%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.0pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.2pp Structural effect
+6.5pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.17 · Dissimilarity: 19.2

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 94.5%
Foreign-born (2021) 5.5%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 26.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.7%
notEnglishPct 4.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

36/100 Low Pressure Rank 170 of 320
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum0/20
School6/20
Language0/20
Housing10/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate64.5%
Avg home ownership45.3%
Avg social rent17.2%
Degree or above37.4%
No qualifications12.3%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)45.3%
Social rent (2021)17.2%
Private rent (2021)36.7%
Ownership (2041)41.5%
Social rent (2041)17.6%
Social rent change+0.4pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

School demographics

DfE School Census 2024/25. 246 pupils.

WBI pupils88.2%
Minority pupils11.8%
EAL growth (projected)+5.5pp
WBI gap (school vs population)5.5pp

Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.7%
notEnglishPct 4.6%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+14.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census