Isles of Scilly
South West · EnglandEthnic composition trajectory
Census 2011 and 2021 observed, Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061. Shaded band shows 80% confidence interval for White British share.
Ethnic composition, Isles of Scilly
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Ethnic composition: Isles of Scilly
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Two-model comparison: White British, 2051
±6.9pp spread Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 71.7% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.
Cohort-component 78.5% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.
Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 6.9pp on White British share in Isles of Scilly by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Isles of Scilly ranges from 6.3% to 12.5% by 2051: a 6.1pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 7.3% by 2051
Diversity index
low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.17 · Dissimilarity: 19.2
Religion
Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.
Religious composition trajectory
Christian No religion
Country of birth
UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.
Nativity trajectory
UK-born Foreign-born
English proficiency
Census 2021
Main language English97.7%
Main language not English2.3%
Cannot speak English well0.2%
Cannot speak English at all0.1%
Total population 3+1,986
ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.
Projection
Projected non-English growth +14.2pp
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
Service demand pressure
Ethnic change20/20
Asylum0/20
School6/20
Language0/20
Housing10/20
Arrivals over the last 24 years
Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Isles of Scilly from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2019 (41 registrations). Total over the full period: 322 registrations.
DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.
How Isles of Scilly changed: 2011 to 2021
Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 2,203 in 2011 to 2,055 in 2021 (-6.7%). Non-UK-born residents went from 133 (6.0% of population) to 115 (5.6%).
Group 2011 2021 Change
UK-born 2,070 94% 1,940 94.4% -130
Ireland-born 8 0.4% 3 0.1% -5
EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 18 0.8% 27 1.3% +9
EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 36 1.6% 43 2.1% +7
Rest of World 71 3.2% 42 2% -29
Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.
Schools, first language
Across 1 state-funded schools in Isles of Scilly (251 pupils, 2024/25), 0.8% have a first language other than English.
Pupils with first language other than English2 (0.8%)
Pupils with first language English249 (99.2%)
Free school meals3.4%
Source: DfE Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics 2024/25, school-level data aggregated to district. EAL (English as Additional Language) is a household-level signal: children born in the UK to non-English-speaking households count as EAL.
South West labour market
Payrolled employments in the South West region (December 2024). Provides Isles of Scilly with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.
Total employments2,671,500
Non-UK share13.2%
5-year change · Non-EU +113,100
5-year change · EU -22,200
Top industries by non-UK share (South West)
Administrative and support services 23.1%
Health and social work 20.9%
Accommodation and food service activities 18.5%
Transportation and storage 17.6%
Manufacturing 15.7%
Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.
Crime
Police-recorded crime rates per 1,000 population, Year ending March 2024. Isles of Scilly ranks at the 0th percentile nationally for total crime rate.
Total crime / 1k31.1
Violent crime / 1k12.7
Theft / 1k8.3
ASB / 1k10.0
Drug offences / 1k2.2
Year-on-year +29.1%
ONS recorded crime by Community Safety Partnership area, year ending March 2024 (Home Office police recorded crime). LA-level rates are CSP rates inherited where multiple LAs share a CSP.. Police recorded crime is shaped by recording practice, reporting rates, and policing priority. Cross-area comparison must take account of those factors. Hate crime and quality-of-life detail are not in this file.
Adult social care
Council ASC spend, residential placements, and quality-of-life outcomes, 2023-24. Spend per head sits at the 99th percentile nationally.
Gross spend / head£1,035
NHS Digital ASCFR & SALT data tables 2023-24 (CASSR-level). Quality-of-life and DToC fields omitted (DToC discontinued post-COVID; ASCOF measures live in a separate publication).. ASC sits with upper-tier authorities only (counties, unitaries, London boroughs, mets); ~153 LAs in coverage and districts are not present. Spending is shaped by demographic composition, deprivation, and informal-care availability and direct cross-area comparison must control for those.
Health by ethnic group
Share reporting "not good health" in each of Isles of Scilly's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White 16.0%
White: English 16.4%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 1.4%
ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.
Special educational needs
EHCPs and primary need breakdown, 2024-25 academic year. 5-year EHCP growth at the 0th percentile nationally.
EHCPs / 10k97
Total EHCPs20
5-yr growth 0.0%
DfE Special educational needs in England, academic year 2024/25 (sen_phase_type_.csv + sen_secondary_need_.csv).. EHCP responsibility sits with upper-tier authorities only, ~153 LAs in coverage. Rate-per-10k uses total LA population (Census 2021) as denominator since school-age population is not in the ethnic-projections feed; cross-LA comparison is therefore directional rather than absolute. Rising EHCP counts may reflect improved identification, changes in diagnostic criteria, increased parental awareness, or genuine prevalence change.
How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)
Most non-UK residents in Isles of Scilly pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.
Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035
IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776
IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m
Cumulative IHS revenue 2015–2024 £6.9bn
IHS rate history
- From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
- From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
- From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
- From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s
Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents
Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.
- Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000–£5,500
- Caesarean section: £5,000–£7,500
- Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000–£30,000+
- Antenatal appointment: £150–£400 each
Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).
Economic profile
Avg employment rate64.5%
Avg home ownership45.3%
Avg social rent17.2%
Degree or above37.4%
No qualifications12.3%
Housing
Composition today
How dwellings in Isles of Scilly are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.
Single-person discount take-up26.4%
Dwellings on 25% single-person discount307
HMO dwellings (Census 2021)8
HMOs per 1,000 population3.89
Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.
Tenure by ethnic group
Household ownership rates for Isles of Scilly's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.
White: owned 45.9%
White: English: owned 46.5%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 28.0%
ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.
Tenure projection
Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.
Ownership (2021)45.3%
Social rent (2021)17.2%
Private rent (2021)36.7%
Ownership (2041)41.5%
Social rent (2041)17.6%
Social rent change+0.4pp
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
School demographics
DfE School Census 2024/25. 246 pupils.
White British pupils88.2%
Minority pupils11.8%
EAL growth (projected)+5.5pp
White British gap (school vs population)5.5pp
Schools are 6pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
Westminster constituencies
Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Isles of Scilly, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.
Asylum and immigration data
Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area.
View Isles of Scilly on Asylum Stats →