Herefordshire, County of

West Midlands · England
-9.4pp WBI 91.1% → 81.7% by 2051 (20-group HP, Census-direct, SNPP-constrained)
187,032 Population (2021 Census)
91.1% White British (2021)
85.5% White British (2041 projected)
81.7% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 91.1%
white other 5.8%
asian 1.2%
black 0.3%
mixed 1.1%
other 0.6%

Projected 2051

white british 81.7%
white other 13.2%
asian 1.6%
black 0.4%
mixed 2.4%
other 0.7%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: national trend.

-2.6pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+4.9pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.22 · Dissimilarity: 16.6

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 91.4%
Foreign-born (2021) 8.6%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 30.3%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

20/100 Stable Rank 283 of 320
Ethnic change8/20
Asylum0/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing11/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate57.9%
Avg home ownership66.1%
Avg social rent13.5%
Degree or above32.2%
No qualifications17.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)66.1%
Social rent (2021)13.5%
Private rent (2021)18.9%
Ownership (2041)64.4%
Social rent (2041)13.6%
Social rent change0pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 95.2%
notEnglishPct 9.5%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+5.6pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census