Gwynedd

Wales · Wales

-16.0pp WBI 93.3% → 77.3% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)

117,392 Population (2021 Census)

93.3% White British (2021)

83.1% -10.2pp White British (2041 projected)

77.3% -16.0pp White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition trajectory

Census 2011 and 2021 observed, Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061. Shaded band shows 80% confidence interval for White British share.

Ethnic composition, Gwynedd

White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI

Ethnic composition: Gwynedd

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011

94%

2021

93%

2026 proj

91%

2031 proj

89%

2036 proj

86%

2041 proj

83%

2046 proj

80%

2051 proj

77%

White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other

Two-model comparison: White British, 2051

±0.0pp spread

Hamilton-Perry (HP) central 77.3% Cohort change ratios from Census 2011 to 2021. Demographic momentum only, no fertility convergence.

Cohort-component 77.3% Births by ethnicity-specific total fertility rate (TFR) with half-convergence to the national mean by 2061. Slower change.

Two independent models trained on the same Census base disagree by 0.0pp on White British share in Gwynedd by 2051. HP captures observed 2011 to 2021 cohort dynamics. The cohort-component model adds explicit fertility assumptions that pull projections toward the national mean. The chart above shows HP. See the methodology for why both numbers are published.

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.19 · Dissimilarity: 18.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections to 2051.

Religious composition trajectory

Christian No religion

Country of birth

UK-born vs foreign-born share, with projection to 2051.

Nativity trajectory

UK-born Foreign-born

English proficiency

Census 2021

Main language English97.5%

Main language not English2.5%

Cannot speak English well0.4%

Cannot speak English at all0.1%

Total population 3+114,307

ONS Census 2021 (TS029) via NOMIS. Reference date 21 March 2021.

Projection

Projected non-English growth +10.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Service demand pressure

Ethnic change15/20

Asylum2/20

School0/20

Language0/20

Housing8/20

Arrivals over the last 24 years

Annual NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Gwynedd from 2002 to 2025, alongside the UK total for context. The peak year was 2023 (1,420 registrations). Total over the full period: 12,845 registrations.

DWP Stat-Xplore, NINO Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK (Ninos cube), aggregated per calendar year by summing the four constituent quarters. Geography: ONS LA codes. Counts are NEW NINo registrations per calendar year. A NINo is issued once per person at the point of first work or claim, so this is a flow measure, not a stock. People who arrive but never register (some students, dependants, retirees) are excluded. Late registrations show in a later year than the year of arrival. Pre-2010 figures used a different administrative system; series is comparable but small methodological revisions to the early years are possible.

Who is arriving

Age and sex profile of 844 NINo registrations to adults from overseas in Gwynedd in 2025. National comparison shown alongside.

Age at registration

Less than 18 1.2%

18-24 39.2%

25-29 29.4%

30-34 14.8%

35-39 9.0%

40-44 4.0%

45-49 1.2%

50-54 0.6%

60 or over 0.6%

Gwynedd UK marker

Sex

Male 56.3% Female 43.7%

Male share is 1.9pp higher than the UK average (54.4%).

DWP Stat-Xplore Ninos cube, LA × Age band × Sex, rolling year ending Q4 2025 (Jan-Dec 2025 calendar year). Counts are NEW NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals. Age is age at NINo registration, not age at arrival. The registration may follow arrival by months. 'Less than 18' is rare in this dataset because the published Ninos series is filtered to adult overseas nationals; values reflect young workers/claimants close to 18. 'Unknown' age is a small residual.

How Gwynedd changed: 2011 to 2021

Two snapshots from two consecutive Censuses, ten years apart. Population changed from 121,874 in 2011 to 117,399 in 2021 (-3.7%). Non-UK-born residents went from 5,915 (4.9% of population) to 6,365 (5.4%).

Group 2011 2021 Change

UK-born 115,959 95.1% 111,034 94.6% -4,925

Ireland-born 486 0.4% 359 0.3% -127

EU pre-2001 (France, Germany, Italy, etc.) 959 0.8% 1,067 0.9% +108

EU 2001-2011 accession (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) 746 0.6% 1,274 1.1% +528

Rest of World 3,724 3.1% 3,665 3.1% -59

Source: ONS Census 2011 KS204EW (NOMIS NM_611_1) and Census 2021 TS012 (NOMIS NM_2032_1), aligned to broad country-of-birth groups. 2011 data uses 2011 LA boundaries; 2021 data uses 2023 boundaries. LAs whose ONS code changed between Censuses (Buckinghamshire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Somerset reorganisations) are not in this comparison.

Wales labour market

Payrolled employments in the Wales region (December 2024). Provides Gwynedd with regional context. Local-authority RTI is not published; the region is the smallest geography for HMRC's nationality breakdown.

Total employments1,386,800

Non-UK share9.7%

5-year change · Non-EU +53,200

5-year change · EU -6,400

Top industries by non-UK share (Wales)

Administrative and support services 18.4%

Accommodation and food service activities 16.8%

Health and social work 13.8%

Manufacturing 11.8%

Transportation and storage 11.4%

Source: HMRC Real Time Information via ONS, payrolled employments by region and industrial sector, July 2014 to December 2024. Counts are employments not employees; suppressed cells appear as missing.

Health by ethnic group

Share reporting "not good health" in each of Gwynedd's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.

White 18.8%

White: English 18.9%

White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 13.2%

ONS Census 2021 (RM043 - General health by ethnic group by age) via NOMIS. All ages, no age-standardisation: younger ethnic-group populations will show lower rates partly because they're younger, not necessarily because they're healthier. Group labels shortened for display.

How NHS care for overseas residents is funded (national context)

Most non-UK residents in Gwynedd pay for NHS care up-front through the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS), which is added to most visa applications. Asylum seekers, refugees, ILR holders and Irish citizens are exempt. Visitors and undocumented residents are charged at 150% of the national NHS tariff. The figures below are England + Wales national totals; per-LA NHS cost-recovery is not centrally published.

Current IHS rate (adult, per year) £1,035

IHS rate, students/under-18s (per year) £776

IHS revenue 2024/25 (£m) £1,315.6m

Cumulative IHS revenue 2015–2024 £6.9bn

IHS rate history

From 2015-04-06: £200/year adult, £150/year students/under-18s
From 2019-01-08: £400/year adult, £300/year students/under-18s
From 2020-10-27: £624/year adult, £470/year students/under-18s
From 2024-02-06: £1035/year adult, £776/year students/under-18s

Indicative charges for visitors and undocumented residents

Maternity care is classified as "immediately necessary": it cannot be refused or delayed for charging, but it is invoiced afterwards at 150% of the NHS national tariff.

Routine vaginal delivery, no complications: £3,000–£5,500
Caesarean section: £5,000–£7,500
Premature birth with NICU stay: £15,000–£30,000+
Antenatal appointment: £150–£400 each

Sources: NHS (Charges to Overseas Visitors) Regulations 2015 (as amended); Home Office IHS caseworker guidance (Sept 2025); House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7274; NHS England NHS Payment Scheme (national tariff). Approximately 80% of identified overseas-visitor debt across all NHS treatment is uncollected (NAO, follow-up scrutiny).

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.7%

Avg home ownership64%

Avg social rent16.3%

Degree or above33.6%

No qualifications15.8%

Housing

Composition today

How dwellings in Gwynedd are occupied. Single-person households and houses in multiple occupation are the two cleanest signals.

HMO dwellings (Census 2021)482

HMOs per 1,000 population4.11

Sources: MHCLG Council Taxbase 2024 (CTB1, snapshot 7 October 2024) for single-person discount; ONS Census 2021 RM192 for HMO dwellings. HMO Census numbers reflect dwellings classified as HMO on Census Day; current licensing registers held by individual councils are not centrally published.

Tenure by ethnic group

Household ownership rates for Gwynedd's largest ethnic groups, Census 2021.

White: owned 66.3%

White: English: owned 66.9%

White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller: owned 43.5%

ONS Census 2021 (RM134 - Tenure by ethnic group, Household Reference Persons) via NOMIS. Group labels shortened for display.

Tenure projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64%

Social rent (2021)16.3%

Private rent (2021)17.1%

Ownership (2041)59.8%

Social rent (2041)15.4%

Social rent change-0.9pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

Westminster constituencies

Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Gwynedd, sorted by share of LA postcodes the constituency covers.

Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru +39.3pp Bangor Aberconwy Labour +11.8pp

Asylum and immigration data Asylum seekers on support, hotel costs, grant rates, and the True Cost of Asylum for this area. View Gwynedd on Asylum Stats →

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census