Gwynedd

Wales · Wales
-16.0pp WBI 93.3% → 77.3% by 2051 (v2, SNPP-constrained, bias-corrected)
117,392 Population (2021 Census)
93.3% White British (2021)
83.1% White British (2041 projected)
77.3% White British (2051 projected)

Ethnic composition

Census 2021 observed data with Hamilton-Perry projections to 2061.

white british 93.3%
white other 2.9%
asian 1.7%
black 0.9%
mixed 0.7%
other 0.5%

Projected 2051

white british 77.3%
white other 7.0%
asian 7.1%
black 3.0%
mixed 3.2%
other 2.5%

What's driving change?

Shift-share decomposes demographic change into national trend, structural composition, and local factors. Dominant driver: local migration.

-1.1pp Total WBI change
-6.4pp National effect
-1.1pp Structural effect
+6.4pp Local effect

Diversity index

low diversity Shannon entropy: 0.19 · Dissimilarity: 18.8

Religion

Census 2021 religious composition with projections.

2021 [object Object]
2031 [object Object]
2041 [object Object]
2051 [object Object]

Country of birth

UK-born (2021) 94.6%
Foreign-born (2021) 5.4%
Foreign-born (2051 projected) 21.0%

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.5%
notEnglishPct 5.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%

Service demand pressure

25/100 Low Pressure Rank 249 of 320
Ethnic change15/20
Asylum2/20
School0/20
Language0/20
Housing8/20

Economic profile

Avg employment rate54.7%
Avg home ownership64%
Avg social rent16.3%
Degree or above33.6%
No qualifications15.8%

Housing demand projection

Census 2021 tenure patterns by ethnicity, projected to 2041 from demographic composition change.

Ownership (2021)64%
Social rent (2021)16.3%
Private rent (2021)17.1%
Ownership (2041)59.8%
Social rent (2041)15.4%
Social rent change-0.9pp

High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.

English proficiency

mainLanguageEnglishPct 97.5%
notEnglishPct 5.0%
cannotSpeakEnglishPct 0.0%
Projected non-English growth+10.2pp

Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.

Updated 14 Apr 2026 · Census 2021, ONS SNPP, DfE School Census